The South African body politic owes a real debt of gratitude to Mosiuoa Lekota, Mbhazima Shilowa and those who joined them to establish the Congress of the People (Cope). They have begun the process of realignment in South African politics, which is long overdue.

For too long the ruling party has enjoyed an overwhelming majority and has in many ways abused the powers entrusted to them by the electorate. Up to now, small political parties in Parliament have in vain tried to check the arrogance and high-handedness of a government that has seldom taken kindly to criticism or seems impervious to advice unless it comes from within its own ranks.

The emergence of Cope

But the emergence of Cope has the possibility of being a far greater challenge to the ANC-led government than we have witnessed since 1994. Cope has succeeded in some measure to give hope to disillusioned ANC supporters.

For some time now, it has been obvious that there is considerable disenchantment in the ruling party. There are many within the party who have been asking the question, ?Is this what we fought for??

Many have grown tired of inefficiencies, empty promises, the stop-start process to the scourge of Aids, the nightmare of inadequate energy resources, poor judgment at local government level and the increasing gap between rich and poor.

In particular, there are strong voices, not merely from the Opposition, but from within the ranks of the ANC itself about the lack of delivery. After the usual ululating and the singing of songs and the chanting of slogans, there are a growing number of people who are challenging the ANC leadership about the promise of housing, schooling, or health services and jobs ? Cope has struck a chord amongst many of these people.

Not all of them will leave the ANC because of its long history and its struggle record. It will hold on to the majority of its support base.

ANC has been given a fright

But the ANC leadership itself has been given a fright and has begun ? at least in some measure ? to listen to the voices of dissent in its own rank and file, and has issued an election manifesto that promises the world. Many of its leaders have crisscrossed the country in an attempt to blunt the impact of Cope.

We will only know after 22 April 2009 whether Cope will emerge as a genuine opposition to the ANC government, or whether it will simply be a mirage. Cope certainly has many handicaps as they attempt to woo the voting public. They are new on the ground, hardly a few months old, and as a result, their image is vague and blurred.

Although they have issued policy statements and election manifestos, there are many who still don?t know what they really stand for.

There is also a leadership struggle between Lekota and Shilowa. It doesn?t help them to have this image of divided leadership at this stage.

Further, whilst they have secured some financial support, they are short of money and it is very difficult, if not impossible, to mount a formidable campaign without financial backing.

As a result of being new and having limited resources, the organisation on the ground is also poor.

If you want to be successful in politics, you need strong, unequivocal leadership, massive financial backing and formidable organisation in every part of the country. Cope lacks all of these.

Further, they have succeeded in attracting many of the pro-Mbeki supporters who have a strong dislike for Zuma and his lieutenants. This means that many have joined Cope because of grievances from the past, rather than a strong commitment to democracy and human rights.

Nevertheless, one must applaud the courage of this new initiative and it has certainly caused the ANC to sit up and take note, which is good in itself; it has the potential to reduce the ANC majority, hopefully below the two-third that they have enjoyed for so long; Cope has also challenged other opposition parties to take a hard look at themselves and their place in the scheme of things in this country. It is too much to hope that there will be some merger of political parties prior to the election, but depending on the results, it is highly probable that we will see the emergence of some stronger coalition amongst opposition parties.

The ANC is not without its problems as well. The image that the ANC has projected over recent years, since the retirement of Nelson Mandela, is a party that has focused on greed, on entitlement, on inconsistency, on jobs for pals. It seems as though they have thrown the moral compass out of the window.

Serious divisions

There are serious divisions within the ANC, despite their constant claim that they remain strong and united. Already, the caretaker president, Kgalema Motlanthe, has come under attack from within his own party. His, seems to be the voice of moderation, of common sense, and in the current ANC, that is not popular and he will not last long and certainly will probably disappear from any prominent position following the 22 April election.

Despite all of Zuma?s attempts to duck and dive and avoid actually facing the serious charges levelled against him, the dark cloud of uncertainty hangs over him and yet he is the one who is being projected as the future president of South Africa.

Against the background of a serious world economic downturn, it is the ANC government that is going to have to deliver to the poor and desperate far more than they have succeeded in doing in the last 15 years.

The protests over the lack of delivery, inadequate housing for the poor, the education system, the lack of jobs, the grim picture of overcrowded hospitals and clinics ? all of these will not go away and the ANC will face growing pressure to improve radically on their past performance.

Another very real challenge to the ANC is the perception that it is now controlled by leading members of Cosatu on the one hand, and the South African Communist Party on the other.

Inevitable that the ANC will lose

It would seem inevitable that the ANC will lose some of its vast majority after 22 April.

There are other serious players in the election, but in reality whilst every party, however large or small, has the right to contest the election, there are very few that will gain any significant support.

Clearly, the Democratic Alliance (DA) continues to grow in numbers and in influence. Under the tireless, energetic and able leadership of Helen Zille, more and more people inside and outside the white voter bloc are beginning to sit up and take notice. This is particularly true amongst coloured and Indian voters.

The DA still has a very long way to go before it makes any significant breakthrough into African support.

Zille is not stupid and reads the political scene well and will know that Cope could offer a very real challenge and may even succeed in wresting from the DA the role of the main opposition party in Parliament.

The DA is assured of winning the Western Cape and rumour has it that Zille will make herself available as the Premier of that province.

I have been critical of Zille?s dual role as Mayor of Cape Town and leader of the DA, and I remain critical of her rationale that if the DA can make Cape Town governable, it can make the Western Cape governable, and that voters throughout South Africa will trust that the DA will govern the country. This seems to be the reasoning, but I don?t think this will sell.

Time for Zille's return

Parliament is the seat of national politics; she has already lost Sandra Botha, and the time has surely come for Zille to return to Parliament and to demonstrate forcibly that the DA is a party to be reckoned with at every level of politics, and not merely Cape Town or the Western Cape.

The departure of Tony Leon, which comes as no surprise, will not help the DA. Despite his many detractors, he is a strong and powerful debater in Parliament and has often taken the ANC to task with consummate skill and courage.

It seems that other prominent DA members will also retire from politics. The DA needs to have a person of Zille?s competence and passion at the helm and that means in Parliament itself.

There are indications that the Independent Democrats under the leadership of Patricia de Lille, may be in trouble. I think Cope will take a slice of their support, as will the DA. It would make a great deal of sense if De Lille started to have very serous discussions with the leadership of Cope.

The same is true of Bantu Holomisa and his small party, the United Democratic Movement, and it may make good sense for even a merger to take place between his party and Cope even prior to the election. But political leaders are for the most part vain and enjoy their position as leaders, even of very small parties with few followers.

We can only hope that the gravity of our situation in South Africa is such that opposition political leaders will set aside their personal ambitions and egos and work together in order to ensure that the ANC will no longer be able to ride roughshod over all of those who are not part of its membership.

There is much at stake

There is much at stake. Hopefully Cope will not spend all its time and energy in African townships (although this is extremely important), but also hold out the promise of a place in South African politics for whites, coloureds and Indians. Minority groups are important and have a right to feel at home, to feel secure, as much as anyone else. Cope would be well advised to hold out that hope to many who have felt disenfranchised by the strong Africanist approach of the ANC, particularly under former president Thabo Mbeki.

It is hoped that in the run-up to the election and after the election, the focus will be on the independence of the judiciary, the rule of law, democratic governance, but also on economic justice.

It is long overdue for political leaders of all persuasions to state unambiguously that they have a vision of a new South Africa, which will focus on a clean government; efficiency; where freedom of the media and the right of assembly will not be in jeopardy; where the rule of law will obtain at every level; a South Africa of which all of us can genuinely be proud of; where women and children can feel safe and free from the risk of rape, assault and murder; and where crime may well remain a challenge, but the police force in its leadership and in its rank and file will be honest, tough and free from corruption.

Above all, it must surely be incumbent on all political parties to determine that the millions of people who remain in poverty, without adequate housing, with poor education, with no jobs; will be South Africa?s first priority.