Kabous le Roux is filled with excitement by the prospect of a split in the ANC. He reckons South Africans are more than ready to choose directly between the two sides...

Over the last few years, despite numerous claims to the contrary, a great rift has appeared within the once mighty ANC. This schism goes far beyond the personality clash of the titans Thabo Mbeki and Jacob Zuma — it's ideological and splitting the party therefore seems logical and almost inevitable.

The ANC resembles an extremely fragile alliance between opposing parties rather than the unified party it incredulously maintains it is. How long can South Africa endure a ruling party at war with itself?

South Africans are tired of enduring two factions bickering because they cannot agree on how South Africa should be ruled. The Mbeki faction's accommodation of capitalist ideals seems abhorrent to a Zuma group who believes the masses are being left out. Incessant debates and glaring differences about vital economic issues such as how to spend the budget surplus or whether inflation targeting should be maintained cannot continue forever — it's obvious that the 'broad church' has become too wide and needs to come apart. We are more than ready to choose directly between the two sides.

Splitting the ANC is the only permanent solution to the untenable situation of a divided and therefore inherently less effective government.

There are other advantages to splitting besides being the solution to a problem that can't otherwise be solved. I'm sure the DA will disagree, but South Africa is a de facto one party state. 'Opposition' parties exist, but never for a moment has the outcome of any post-apartheid election been anything but dead certain. This has led to the disenfranchisement of minority voters who have nowhere else to turn.

Could a breakaway party challenge the dominance of the ANC? You bet!

In the last election voter turnout was less than 50 percent and the ANC lost half of those that voted for them in 1994. Weak and unloved opposition parties predictably did not capitalise and it is clear that a breakaway party has a massive pool of disillusioned voters to draw from.

The DA has tried and failed to garner votes from those outside the White, Coloured and Indian middle classes and all the other parties seem too small to matter. It's possible that a new party could breath fire into disenchanted hordes from all races and in so doing become the first truly multiracial political party in South Africa's history.

Obviously it's not only those unsatisfied by weak opposition parties who might give a breakaway party a chance. Mbeki and Co continues to have considerable support and will most definitely rally the vote of many who've been faithful to the ANC up to now.

The prospect a truly viable opposition party after having to put up with a pack of Chihuahuas for so long fills me with excitement and hope. Elections will, for the first time ever, become a real competition. Whoever's in charge will have to perform as victory at the polls cannot, like before, be taken for granted.

After ages of domination by monolithic ruling parties we're more than ready for a genuine multi-party democracy.

I'm all for a multi-party democracy. Hell, I'll even settle for a two-party democracy. It would mean greater choice, greater accountability, more participation and, generally speaking, far more exciting politics.

Whether South Africa needs a multi-party democracy is not the question. It is whether South Africans and the ANC are ready for a split, and judging from the events of the past year, I would suggest that they are not.

Let us begin with the electorate. The majority of South Africans do not vote for the ANC because they believe in the ideals of the party. They do not vote for the ANC because the ANC has delivered on its promises. They vote (and increasingly simply do not vote, which in itself is telling) for the ANC because the ANC brought them freedom.

This vote of loyalty has ensured that post-democratic South Africa hasn't cultivated a politically mature electorate. Opposition parties (and indeed opposition voices within the ANC) are quashed as counter-revolutionary. There is no public debate on ideals and policy. Because the ANC shuns media interaction and the notion of campaigning — a hangover of its guerrilla party origins — the public knows very little about what the individuals in the party actually stand for.

So where does this leave the average South African voter? The answer, unfortunately, is with ethnicity. The xenophobic attacks that took place earlier this year (some on fellow South African citizens because of their ethnicity) and the perpetual positioning of Jacob Zuma as 100 percent Zulu, proves that South African politics needs to move not only beyond the politics of race, but also beyond the politics of tribe.

Now, on to the ANC. In the event that a faction of the ANC does break away, the two parties would not be equal. One (the Zuma faction) would still be the legitimate faction, with all the accompanying access to power and control of resources, while the other would be a pariah party. The other, let's call it the New ANC, would be the party that broke with tradition. The party that betrayed the ideals of the ANC. And ultimately, the party that turned against the heroes of the struggle (even if those same heroes were now members of NANC).

And would the split be non-violent? Perhaps. The peaceful ousting of Thabo Mbeki suggests that perhaps South Africans are actually quite flexible and open to change. On the other hand, it has not been Thabo Mbeki (and his faction) that has been threatening violence if things do not go his way. The undisciplined behaviour at recent ANC meetings, however, and the violent threats of the ANCYL and the tripartite alliance partners suggests that, for some, violence has not been completely discarded as a means of achieving political goals.

And then there is that almost inconsequential matter of power. In order for NANC to be successful, it would require critical mass. Unless a significant number (and we're talking at least one third here) of former ANC members move across to NANC, there is very little chance of the party succeeding. And who, from our current pool of politicians, is likely to take that gamble when they already hold all the cards?

• Who do you agree with? Join the debate by posting a comment below...