There's not enough time. ANC supporters are loyal. Shikota et al are just a bunch of angry power-grabbing dissidents. Blah, blah, blah.

We've heard all the reasons why Cope won't succeed — unsuspecting animals have been introduced into the fray; chairs have been thrown; and Bantu Holomisa has been dredged up as an example of all that can go wrong when you cross the mighty ANC.

While Zuma sings, dances, and denies that he is worried by his former comrades, the ANC attempts to quash dissent with legal action. But one national convention and three name-changes later, the 'poor losers from Polokwane' are shaping up to contest an election. Sure, they might not win, but here are some pretty good reasons why they won't slip into obscurity.

• People have lost faith in the ANC.


• Jacob Zuma


• Shikota has struggle cred


• Julius Malema


• Obamamania has sparked political optimism

And I'm only being mildly facetious on points two and four. Let me elaborate…

Betrayed by the party

Fourteen years after our first democratic elections, South Africans have become disillusioned. The ANC's gleaming struggle legacy has been tarnished by broken election promises, corruption, skyrocketing crime levels, poor service delivery and self-enrichment.

The poor are still poor, but now they also carry a large portion of the burden of HIV/Aids and South Africa's failed foreign policies.

However, race politics are so entrenched in South African society, that to vote for another party — a party other than that which 'delivered' freedom — is seen as a betrayal. Few of the many who still support the ANC see the party's many failures as a betrayal of the people it claims to represent.

A legitimate challenge

Somewhat ironically, the only legitimate challenge to the ANC must come from within the ANC. Ironically, because Terror Lekota and Mbhazima Shilowa cannot be divorced from the ANC government which has ruled South Africa since the advent of democracy.

And yet, for the disenfranchised ANC supporter, they provide a viable alternative to the ANC in power. They share the ANC's esteemed history — Terror Lekota spent more years in prison for the struggle than Jacob Zuma and Mbhazima Shilowa played a founding role in the trade movement Cosatu.

This, together with the nature of the split, makes them a far greater threat to the ANC than Bantu Holomisa and his UDM.

While Shikota is steeped in ANC history, Holomisa was a military ruler in the Transkei (translation: lackey of the apartheid government), who only joined the ANC in 1994. While Lekota and Shilowa resigned from the party on their own terms (with all the accompanying righteous indignation), Holomisa was expelled from the party (for bringing corruption charges against a fellow ANC NEC member) before he started the UDM.

These are small, but significant differences, which, when combined with readiness of electorate for change, make the likelihood of success considerably greater.

But perhaps the biggest boon for Cope, is the current leadership of the ANC — Jacob and Julius.

The flipside of populism is contempt.

Rabble rousers

Although 600 000 members of the ANC settled on Jacob Zuma at Polokwane (through the 4000 delegates), the fact that he was so vehemently opposed by 40 percent of the delegates is proof that his appeal is anything but universal.

Those claiming the triumph of democracy at Polokwane would do well to remember that for every three 'Zulu boy' supporters, there are two angry disenfranchised voters who have seen their president ousted (perhaps unfairly) and leaders sidelined.

Throw in Jacob Zuma's obvious shortcomings as a presidential candidate and the ANC can no longer shrug off the opposition with casual indifference. The electorate could just become the opposition.

And then there is Julius Malema.

Cope's Anele Mda has been touted as Shikota's answer to the vitriolic youth leader, but her job is hardly challenging. Malema is the ANC's gift to the opposition. Every time he opens his mouth he alienates ANC stalwarts, breeds contempt and reminds the electorate why the ANC is unlikely to stick it out until the return of Christ.

This is not a time for mediocre leaders. This is not a time for revolutionaries. This is the time of Barack Obama. As far away as America may be, Obamamania has leaked into the South African political consciousness. South Africans have seen a real leader; they have seen that change is possible; and they have seen that the power really does lie with the people.

If Cope hopes to succeed, it would do well not to underestimate the intelligence of South African voters. The same can be said of the ANC.

Do you agree with Rebekah? Post a comment below…