What do Bantu Holomisa, Helen Zille, Zwelinzima Vavi and Desmond Tutu have in common?

B-A-N-A-N-A-S.

Hah! Bet you didn't see that one coming. Add to the list the IFP's Velapi Ndlovu, Cope, PAC president Letlapa Mphahlele, former labour minister Membathisi Mdladlana and Sasoc president Gideon Sam and you have a collection of prophets of doom…

Bantu Holomisa: "They are rushing laws through Parliament, undermining democratic institutions and releasing criminals convicted of serious crimes simply because they are aligned to the ruling clique. This gives us an idea of where we are heading if this clique comes into power. We are heading one way and that's a banana republic." (March 2009).

Helen Zille: "This is classic banana republic stuff. It demonstrates the ANC's approach to the institutions of state. In the ANC's view, these institutions (such as law enforcement agencies) must serve the party leaders, not the people." (November 2008).

Zwelinzima Vavi: "There was a lot of hatred of Jacob Zuma before the election — there were sour grapes. There was evidence that people were manipulating government institutions for personal gain… we were en-route to a banana republic." (May 2009).

Desmond Tutu: "It is possible that a post-Polokwane purge will hurt some people who could also be plotting their revenge one day. Our country deserves better. The way of retribution leads to a banana republic." (September 2008).

Yip, non-partisan consensus: South Africa is on the slippery road to becoming a banana republic. Is. Or was. Or will be. Sure, the context differs considerably from one speaker to the next, but the general consensus is that we're just a few banana peels away from our northern neighbours.

This sentiment is not new, nor is it limited to third world countries plagued by poverty and violence. The spectre of a banana republic is regularly raised by British columnists and Republicans in the US have been shouting 'banana republic!' ever since Barack Obama denounced waterboarding (which originally had riled-up Democrats playing the banana republic card).

So, is all the fear-mongering justified? Or are politicians, the media and, yes, the public, so addicted to the high (that self-righteous indignation) that wallowing in prophesies of failure brings, that facts become irrelevant? Perhaps the phrase 'banana republic' is just too darn catchy to resist.

But what, exactly, does it mean?

The term has its roots in South America, where in many countries (El Salvador, Honduras, Nicaragua and El Salvador, for example) during the 20th century a dictatorial regime supported the exploitation of large-scale plantation agriculture (the primary crop, more often than not, being bananas) by companies such as United Fruit from the USA in exchange for kickbacks.

Over time, the term has come to describe an unstable or backward political regime, which is usually ruled by a small, corrupt clique and is dependent on limited agriculture.

This is, however, a rather vague definition. South Africa, for one, does not have an economy based on bananas, or even agriculture for that matter. In order for a country to meet the criteria of a banana republic, it should meet most, if not all, of the following criteria.

Banana republic checklist:

• A corrupt, self-elected ruler/ military junta


• Fraudulent elections


• Prone to revolutions and coups


• A leader/ruling clique that is above the law


• An economy based primarily on agriculture


• Reliance on foreign capital


• A rapidly weakening currency


• Large wealth inequities


• Poor infrastructure

So, how does South Africa measure up on the banana barometer?

The only criterion, for which we get an outright yes, is that of large wealth inequalities. There is no doubt that South African society is very clearly divided along wealth lines and that the gap between the rich and the poor is slowly increasing rather than decreasing.

When it comes to revolutions, foreign capital, infrastructure and the law, South Africa enters a murky grey territory. Yes, the country underwent a major political revolution, but despite the revolutionary rhetoric of the ANC and its alliance partners, this does not necessarily mean that we are "prone" to revolutions. And while the ousting of Thabo Mbeki as president last year felt somewhat like a bloodless coup, it fell well within the ambit of the law.

South Africa is dependent on foreign capital to fund its imports and current account deficit (7.4 percent of GDP in 2008), however, it is not completely reliant on the inflow of foreign capital. Similarly, while there are definitely shortcomings in South Africa's infrastructure, particularly in the rural areas, it is by no means on the verge of collapse. In fact, much of South Africa's infrastructure is being overhauled in anticipation of the 2010 Football World Cup.

Whether or not the ANC is above the law is up for debate. While some members of the ruling clique have been sentenced for various crimes, these sentences tend to have been rather light or not fully implemented (Tony Yengeni, Schabir Shaik, Winnie Madikizela-Mandela). In the case of the President Jacob Zuma, some would argue that a robust and effective justice system stopped him being unfairly tried, while others would argue that the fact that Zuma was never tried is proof of a failure of justice and evidence that the ruling clique is above the law.

Despite a few election shenanigans, South Africa can claim with a fair degree of certainty that its elections were not fraudulent, that the ruler was not self-elected (although the issue of corruption is still up for debate), that the economy is not based primarily on agriculture and that the currency is not freefalling.

Verdict: South Africa's just not cracking it as a banana republic. Sure, 20 years from now we may find that our beautiful nation has more in common with a tropical fruit than it does with a rainbow. But for now, the prophets of doom are way off the mark.

Do you agree with Rebekah or is her optimism based on blissful ignorance? Share your thoughts below…

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