What will it take for Western Cape residents to tick the ANC box in the next general election and hand the province back to the green, gold and black?

That is the question that the leadership of the ANC, perhaps more so than the Democratic Alliance, needs to answer. And, once it does, the party won't have long to win over the hearts and minds of the pariah province.

The DA already has the confidence of voters and it appears that the province is theirs to lose.

Challenges such as bridging the racial divide and challenging the DA's reputation in good governance ? be it through undermining them or doing a better job ? will take a dynamic leader.

The coloured line

The Coloured voting block in the Western Cape is often seen as the real decider when it comes to who will win the elections and gaining their support was crucial to Helen Zille in 2009.

But Professor Robert Mattes, a political scientist at the University of Cape Town, holds that race isn't the key issue when it comes to gaining votes in the province.

"The ANC need a leader with credibility," he said, noting that it isn't about the race of the party leader but the respect they have within the community. Mattes points out that many Coloureds who stayed at home in 2004 came out to vote in 2009.

In the most recent election, the credibility of the leader of the DA seemed to have enough weight to draw the voters out of their homes and into the polling booths. The manner in which the ANC hosts its events and the type of language it uses is also important notes Mattes ? 10 points for Zille on how she reacted to President Jacob Zuma's trademark 'Mshini wam' with a song and dance of her own during the 2009 election.

The ANC won't be able to take voters from the DA in the Western Cape by appealing to old loyalties or cultural similarities, agrees Roland Henwood, a lecturer in politics at Pretoria University.

An effective strategy to win back the province would be to "prove that the DA fails in terms of governance," he said, "The line that the DA is only looking after the elite won't cut it."

Holiday-makers notice clean Cape

Interestingly, Henwood notes that in examining letters published outside of the Western Cape there is an impression that whatever the DA is doing is working.

Letters with phrases such as, "compared to where I come from", that note details such as neat entrances to towns and roads free of potholes, are being voiced by those who came to the Western Cape and were impressed.

Managing a popular domestic destination is an opportunity to show off the area during peak holiday times and, it would seem, a chance to gain support through results seen and not promises made.

Not Coping

As for the 200 000 voters who crossed Cope's box during the 2009 elections, their influence is unpredictable, Mattes said.

According to the Independent Electoral Commission, the DA got 989 132 votes (48.83 percent), the ANC 666 223 (32.89 percent) and Cope 183 763 (9.07 percent) with the Independent Democrats receiving 91 001 votes (4.49 percent).

Voters from across the colour line cheered Cope's rise to fame and the party attracted dissatisfied supporters right across the ballot sheet ? and this means that opposition parties could also benefit if Cope's dissolution continues, Henwood noted.

The leadership of Cope immediately started to sink after winning a fair number of seats in the elections. Instead of trying to show that they are as effective an opposition as the DA they vanished and rumours of infighting arose. Lately their own youth association has called for all of their leaders to be fired.

"Cope had the potential to take huge amounts of ANC votes away, and the party still has potential to be effective and even rival bigger parties," Henwood said. With Cope's current leadership and policy issues it will not be a threat as it starts to fit the role and behaviour of a minority party.

"In 2009 Cope definitely played a role, but it's difficult to make predictions. If people break ranks once they may do it again."

Unofficial voter migration polity?

As a successful province, the Western Cape is seen as a popular destination for job seekers ? especially those from the Eastern Cape, traditionally an ANC stronghold.

It is difficult to predict whether the movement of ANC supporters to the province will have an impact in the next general elections in 2013, but it would be "difficult to accept" that this is an intended manipulation on the part of the ANC, Henwood said.

Henwood states that one reality of the modern state is migration ? especially from poor rural areas to urban areas. "Look at Zimbabwe ? it's the failure of the Eastern Cape governance that is pushing people away more than anything," he points out.

Changing the regional view that the ANC disappointed when it had its chance and is now suddenly able to meet the needs of the voters seems to be a bridge too far. Especially considering that the DA will be pulling out all the stops to keep what they see as their launching pad to real political power.

Henwood holds that if the ANC councillors mobilise supporters to vote during elections on the back of proven service delivery and good governance, they can issue a real challenge to the DA in the province as good governance is what counts. Period.

Do you think the Western Cape will turn green, gold and black? Leave your comment below.