The Marikana shooting will not see President Jacob Zuma lose control of the ruling party in Mangaung, political analyst Professor Steven Friedman said on Friday.
Events at Marikana had "hardened" the positions of both Zuma supporters and detractors, but what had happened there was not likely to unseat him at the ANC's elective conference in December.
"It [Marikana] hardens existing positions, both within the ANC and the country itself; it doesn't shift them," he said.
To the question of whether Zuma's handling of the Marikana situation might cause him to lose his position of party president at Mangaung, Friedman responded: "No."
Last month, Zuma announced a three-member judicial commission of inquiry to probe the violence at Lonmin's Marikana mine in which 46 people died.
Its findings are unlikely to emerge before early next year, after the elective conference.
On Thursday evening, speaking at a Centre for Conflict Resolution public meeting on "ANC factionalism on the road to Mangaung", Friedman was reported as saying that while Mangaung was likely to provide "good theatre", it would not be a defining moment in South African politics.
"Instead of fixating on Mangaung, we need to ask the hard questions, like the role that business and trade unions play in our society, rather than simply blaming everything on the governing party," he was quoted on the IOL news website.
Nominations for African National Congress leadership positions will open next week.
The party was holding a special national executive committee meeting on Friday, to discuss credentials for its national conference.
"They will be discussing credentials for Mangaung," spokesperson Keith Khoza said on Thursday.
The meeting takes place at Gallagher Estate in Midrand, Johannesburg.