President Jacob Zuma's first state of the nation address is expected to be optimistic over South Africa's future while curbing expectations as a recession threatens jobs and election promises.

Analysts say Zuma's speech, at the opening of the fourth democratic parliament Wednesday, will focus on the ruling ANC's goals of fighting poverty and crime while creating jobs, improving education and rural development.

Susan Booysens, an analyst at the Johannesburg-based Wits University, said the future for the African National Congress (ANC) government was "as challenging as you can get".

Zuma's speech comes a week after South Africa officially entered its first recession in 17 years after the economy contracted 6.4 percent in the first quarter, a figure which shocked economists.

The announcement brought with it further fears of job cuts, and interest rates were cut a further 100 basis points to 7.5 percent although unions demanded they be cut even further to stimulate the economy.

Earlier this year, economists predicted that up to 250 000 jobs would be lost as the mining and automotive industries suffer.

"There has been the accumulation of problems. Ineffective, lack of capacity in the public sector, sub-optimal implementation (of policy) — that comes in a period of global and South African crises in a time where South African citizens really have huge expectations," Booysens said.

Zuma was buoyed into the presidency on a wave of popular support for his promises to improve the lives of South Africans, many having grown impatient with abysmal service delivery in the 15 years since white-minority rule ended.

A 'sober speech'?

Peter Vale, a political analyst at Rhodes University, said the government had achieved a lot in the past few years, and Zuma's speech was likely to show a "rounding off of policy which we have not seen before."

"Every country in the world is going through this (financial crisis). In many ways we were protected so things don't look quite as bad," Vale told AFP.

"I think it will be a sober speech... saying to every one don't expect too much."

Booysens said it was important for the ANC to keep hope alive, while injecting a large dosage of caution into the populace.

"I think it will be a big explanation act as to what can be reasonably expected now and what not. I think it will be a combination of hope and caution."

Despite the relatively bleak backdrop, the occasion will not shirk on ceremony.

Parliamentary Speaker Max Sisulu said there would be a mounted police escort, a fly-past by the South African Air Force and a 21-gun salute, while defence force members would line Zuma's route.

"It is an occasion like no other and the first state of the nation address will be as involved, as intense and as full a ceremonial affair as they all have been."

All former presidents were invited. The country's 90-year-old first black president Nelson Mandela has indicated his desire to be present "but as we all know he is a bit frail," said Sisulu, adding it would be understood if Mandela could not make it.

AFP

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