Robert Mugabe's decision to push ahead with Zimbabwe's vote in defiance of his peers has exposed the impotence of divided regional leaders who have run out of options, analysts said Thursday.

The Southern African Development Community (Sadc), traditionally loath to criticise the Zimbabwean president, issued its strongest criticism of their neighbour's regime after an emergency meeting on Wednesday, urging him to shelve the ballot.

As Mugabe presses ahead with an election in which he is the lone contender, world leaders such as US President George Bush have called for regional leaders to put more pressure on the 84-year-old.

"More leaders in the region need to speak out," Bush said after the first round of voting led to a month of silence on election results, sparking a crisis leading up to Friday's run-off.

Powerless Sadc

However, analysts agree that a fragmented Sadc has never and will never produce a cohesive response, with South African President Thabo Mbeki, the region's most powerful leader and official mediator, refusing to take a tougher public line even if smaller countries such as Zambia and Botswana are increasingly speaking out.

"South Africa by far holds the largest number of political and economic bargaining chips to pressure and nudge the Zimbabwe government," said George Katito, a researcher with the South African Institute of International Affairs in Johannesburg.

But as long as the regional powerhouse refuses to get tough, Katito added: "I think there is very little Sadc can do as a region."

Hussein Solomon, director of the Pretoria-based Centre for International Political Studies, said that from its inception, the 14-nation bloc has been unable to see eye-to-eye.

Incompetent body

"It is very, very incompetent as a body," said Solomon. While organisations such as the European Union require similar values for membership, SADC included "kleptocratic" Angola and "feudal monarchy" Swaziland alongside more progressive members, he added.

King Mswati III of Swaziland chaired the meeting of the peace and security Troika which called for the elections to be postponed, which Pretoria-based analyst Chris Maroleng argues shows the "collective" speaking out.

"It's the first sign the international community is speaking with one voice," he said.

However with Mbeki declining an invitation to attend, and troika member Angola not present, the continent's last absolute monarch and Tanzanian President Jakaya Kikwete were unlikely to dent Mugabe's defiance.

"We may have ties with other countries, but that is all. Friendship does not mean you are in charge of our country, you are part of us, no!" Mugabe said a day before holding the election the opposition pulled out of due to violence.

Divided, defiant, silent

So with Sadc divided, Mugabe defiant and Mbeki silent, the election looks set to take place and mediation will have to continue in the aftermath. However with opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai calling for Mbeki to be removed as mediator, as he pursues his policy of "quiet diplomacy," it is unlikely the stringent measures needed will come from his government.

"I don't see any change in terms of the South African position under Mbeki. 'I am sorry I screwed up' does not feature in the lexicon of our current leadership," Solomon told AFP.

With strongly-worded statements not having any effect on Mugabe, Solomon said it was time for South Africa to put the economic squeeze on its neighbour.

"Eskom lights up Harare, Transnet moves locomotives," he said in reference to the South African state utilities. "Scores of senior Zanu-PF people and cabinet ministers have houses and assets in South Africa.

"They should move against freezing those assets as a means to really hurt the senior hierachy of Zanu in their pocketbook," he added. Katito agreed, saying that while stronger language was desired and would be symbolic, "what would cause change are definitely measures that pose definite political and economic repercussions upon Zimbabwe's government.

"The unfortunate reality is that there is very little that Sadc and the international community can feasibly do in the next few hours."

AFP